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The a16z Show · Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Gavin Baker: ROI on AI Spending is Positive, But Blackwell Spend Poses a Question

Gavin Baker noted that the return on invested capital (ROIC) for major AI GPU spenders has seen a 10.3X increase. While the current ROI is positive, he acknowledges that the significant spending expected on Nvidia's Blackwell platform introduces an open debate about future returns, though he personally remains optimistic.

tickerNVDApersonGavin BakercompanyNvidia

The tape

3 quotes
It is return on invested capital of the biggest spenders on GPUs, who are all public.
Gavin Baker
And those companies, since they ramped up CapEx, have seen, called it a 10.3X increase in their ROICs.
Gavin Baker
It's an interesting and open debate about whether or not it will continue to be positive with the quantum of spend we're going to have on Blackwell.
Gavin Baker
Heard on The a16z Show — “Is AI a Bubble? | Gavin Baker on Data Centers, GPUs, and the AI Economy, published Tuesday, July 14, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
Transcribed via Gemini audio transcription · $0.04
Gavin Baker: ROI on AI Spending is Positive, But Blackwell Spend Poses a Question — Heardvine