← Front page

Planet Money · Friday, July 3, 2026

Game Theory: Why Predictability is a Loser in Penalty Shootouts

The application of game theory in soccer penalty kicks reveals that predictable strategies by either the kicker or the goalkeeper can be exploited. While economists initially doubted the practical use of mixed strategies, soccer players demonstrate an ability to be unpredictable when stakes are high.

The tape

3 quotes
And your opponent, of course, is trying to anticipate your strategy.
Jeff Guo
And so what you have to do is sometimes, even though your chances of scoring are lower, you actually want to shoot to your worst side.
Stephen Schmiesky
Footballers, professional footballers, turn out to be very good at picking those random sequences.
Stephen Schmiesky
Heard on Planet Money — “How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory), published Friday, July 3, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
Transcribed via Gemini audio transcription · $0.01
Game Theory: Why Predictability is a Loser in Penalty Shootouts — Heardvine