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Planet Money · Friday, July 3, 2026

Game Theory Reveals Strategy Behind Penalty Kicks

Game theory, when applied to soccer penalty kicks, suggests that players should not always shoot to their dominant side, but instead use a mixed strategy to remain unpredictable. This concept aims to exploit an opponent's predictability, a strategy pioneered by economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta.

The tape

3 quotes
And so what you have to do is sometimes, even though your chances of scoring are lower, you actually want to shoot to your worst side.
Stephen Schmiesky
And that's what's called in game theory a mixed strategy.
Stephen Schmiesky
And so the best strategy for the goalkeeper is to dive to his left or right, at random.
Heard on Planet Money — “How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory), published Friday, July 3, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.
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Game Theory Reveals Strategy Behind Penalty Kicks — Heardvine