Forward Guidance · Friday, July 3, 2026
The recent Yen intervention by the Ministry of Finance is noted as occurring at the same time as a significant unwinding of momentum factors in the market. This parallel is compared to a similar event in July '24, suggesting a potential pattern where currency interventions coincide with market factor reversals.
“It always seems to be that when the factors unwind is the same time that we see something happening with the Yen and we had that happen today?”
“So, let me just show on slide 23, it looks like we finally had this happen.”
“Very similar setup, oddly, where committee pivot hawkish, they throw out all these dots, potentially three hikes this year and, you know, just at the time where today we see labor rolling over, we're going to see inflation rolling over, we know what oil's going to do and can project that out multiple months.”