Excess Returns · Saturday, July 11, 2026
Jim Paulsen argues that despite a recent calming in economic sentiment, the underlying momentum is still slowing and will likely reintensify. He points to zero job creation over the last 12 months and rising part-time employment as indicators of weakness not seen outside of recessions.
“I don't think the slowdown though is over. And I think it's going to reintensify again. There's still a lot of stuff that really doesn't look right for people being as calm as we are about the economy.”
“Nowhere in our history that I've been in the business, going back to the early 80s, was zero job creation over any 12-month period considered something that was okay and people could feel confident about.”
“You don't have part-time employment rising and you don't have the unemployment rate rising. When you're still in an official economic expansion. It's just not, it's never been looked at that way at all. Those are things that only occur in the midst of recessions.”