Bloomberg Surveillance · Friday, July 10, 2026
Analyst George Noble raises concerns about the valuation and liquidity of SpaceX, comparing it to historical market bubbles. He highlights the staggered lockup of shares, with 100% becoming freely floating by December, and suggests that investors should be wary of the potential price impact.
“History shows that buying companies that over ten times revenues usually ends very badly. We all recall Scott McNeely famously in some microsystems. What happens when you have to what your return is gonna be. If you buy Someme with ten x, this is one hundred and twenty times revenues.”
“And here's the worst part of SpaceX, which I don't want to engage in the captain obvious thinking. But the thing everyone should consider, and that is the staggered lockup that we're now the unlocked that we're looking at. Okay, starting from next month, when the quarterly earnings come out, you're twenty percent of the shares come unlocked shortly thereafter, and then there's a whole series of unlocked seven percent every twenty or thirty days. By December, one hundred percent of the shares will be freely floating.”
“The point of the important point that investors should understand is even without any change in the fundamentals, when you go from a five percent float to one hundred percent float.”