Odd Lots · Friday, July 10, 2026
Alex Altman discusses Barclays' Equity Timing Indicator (BETTY), which uses 19 quantifiable inputs, excluding sentiment. Currently, BETTY indicates a poor forward return profile for the S&P 500 over a two-month horizon, with a significantly reduced chance of making money and a negative average return, driven primarily by momentum crowding.
“So so Betty, Yeah, we love Betty. So this index was created shortly after I joined Barclays, but it was the first iteration was created back in twenty eighteen. So there's a reasonable amount of out of sample data around this framework. It's got nineteen inputs. None of those inputs. We have a mant on my team. I tell everyone this in my team every week, which is, if you can't quantify, you don't have the right to talk about it.”
“And so your question was it's been in this record sort of warning territory. Now, Yes, it has been in record warning territory, and effectively that's been driven by primarily momentum crowding.”
“It's telling you that you only had a round about a thirty five percent chance or even lower of making money in the S ANDP over that same time horizon, and your average return was basically negative.”