Odd Lots · Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Nate Silver discussed historical polling discrepancies, noting that while systematic polling errors have underestimated Donald Trump in presidential election cycles, midterms without him on the ballot show different error patterns and underestimations of Democrats.
“In every election in the Trump era where Trump is not on the ballot, You have not had that error. And in fact, in like New Jersey and Virginia last year, you had a massive underestimation of Democrats and governors races.”