Odd Lots · Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Discussing midterm model probabilities, Nate Silver pointed out that prediction markets and model projections on Polymarket and Kalshi place Democrats with high probability to win the Senate, contrasting with a simple toss-up narrative.
“I think at Pauline Marquette and Kelshi, Democrats are up to like 68 percent or something as when we're recording this. And in our model, they're at 70, high 70s now?”