S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio Reaches 40, Signaling Zero Real Returns Over 10 Years
David warned that the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 40. Historically, when valuations reach this level, the average real return after inflation has been zero over the subsequent 10-year period.
personDavid
The tape
1 quote
“When it's been this expensive, the average real return after backing inflation has been zero over the next 10 years.”
David
Heard on Money For the Rest of Us — “Stock Pickers Keep Losing, Who's Winning?”, published Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Heardvine summarizes and quotes with attribution and timestamps, and links to the original everywhere.