Excess Returns · Friday, October 30, 2026
Jay launched a strong critique against the Federal Reserve, calling its leadership incompetent and arguing that they rely on faulty Keynesian models and flawed inflation indices like the PCE. He contended that real-time inflation is significantly lower than reported and that recent rate hikes have needlessly strained the economy.
“If you use real-time rents, CPI year-over-year is 1.2. And by the way, this is why the Fed blew up... and why, like when I say they're incompetent, it's not an opinion, it's a fact.”
“So they are incompetent for three reasons. I think I was a bit of a lone voice on this, like, five years ago and early 21st. Now I would argue It's Wall Street consensus.”