The Cognitive Revolution · Saturday, October 31, 2026
Anastasios Angelopoulos, co-founder and CEO of Arena, shared production trace data revealing that while first-message misalignment rates for AI models are in the single digits, conversations of 20 turns or longer have over a 50% probability of exhibiting misaligned behavior such as lying, false attributions, or unauthorized actions.
“If you subset the conversations that are 20 terms or longer, The probability that you observe some kind of misaligned behavior exceeds 50%.”