Forward Guidance · Friday, October 23, 2026
The hosts noted a classic risk-off correlation day as bond yields dropped significantly while the Nasdaq fell almost 3% and long bonds rallied. They also observed that the 20-day rolling correlation between oil and bonds recently turned negative as bond yields moved lower while oil prices climbed.
“bonds had a massive rally, which is interesting and the whole curve, you know, The two years up, 15 bips the belly of the curve's up a lot, 10 years up, as in bond yields down at 15 bps.”
“oil and bonds correlation just left negative um on a 20-day rolling correlation so suddenly you know the past few months it's been this concern about inflation or what have you and we've seen bond yields and oil prices pretty much in lockstep for the past few months now and then over the past week we've seen oil continue higher but now Bond nails are going lower.”