Dwarkesh Podcast · Thursday, October 22, 2026
Intel executives discussed the unprecedented semiconductor demand driven by AI, noting that demand is easily 40 to 50 percent above maximum capacity. They explained that while marginal production can increase relatively quickly over a 12-month period, long-term expansion through the end of the decade is severely constrained by upstream equipment supply shortages, particularly from lithography equipment makers like ASML.
“AI is driving incredible computing demand. Easily 40 to 50 percent above our maximum capacity, which I've never seen before.”
“For this EUV tool, ASML produces less than 100 of them a year. Yes. And they don't plan to produce more than 100 a year, even by the end of the decade”