Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, July 8, 2026
A key threshold for oil prices that could threaten the disinflation thesis is around $80 per barrel. While current geopolitical tensions are still unfolding, a sustained rise to this level would negatively impact the market's expectation of cooling inflation into the end of the year. Currently, the base case remains for a broadening market play, but this is contingent on oil prices remaining below that critical $80 mark.
“Yeah, I'm not sure there's a magical level here at List about what I would say is that, you know, obviously, with oil sub seventy, we were feeling pretty good about our broadening play, right, and I still think that's our base case.”
“We're a day or two into this, the conflict sort of reasserting itself, so we'll need to let this play out. But I'd say if there's a line in the sand on oil prices that we've been drawing, it's probably around eight eighty dollars level that really begins to kind of clip the thesis for us.”