Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Despite the end of the Middle East ceasefire and the revocation of waivers for Iranian crude, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have remained relatively stable, at around 70% of normal. Analysts believe the revocation of the waiver may not significantly alter the situation given Iran's prior unsanctioned sales. The primary concern shifts to refined products, as refining capacity has been damaged, potentially impacting gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices.
“What's it looked like now.”
“Yeah, so the last time we had a flare up, we had a decline in the crossings through the Strait. We're very likely to see that again. But we have to also remember when we saw the MoU being announced, we couldn't expect going from zero to one hundred directly. I think right now we shouldn't also extrapolate that this is going to go to zero and stop altogether. So let's give it a couple of days.”
“So to me, that signals that this is not necessarily over. Let's see what happens with the flows, and in terms of how high the flows were. Just before this latest flare up, we saw total Persian Gulf exports reach seventy percent of normal, So by this does include, to be fair, the reroutes the pipeline reroutes from the region, But it was a pretty good rate of flow considering how soon it was the MoU.”
“So it's not obvious to me. That the revocation of the license alone is going to change this dramatically. We have to see where those flows go. I think the blocking of the strait that was in place before this is what we need to watch for. So, going back to your first question, we need to watch the crossings. We need to watch how much that seventy percent of normal is going to fall.”
“But refining capacity has been damaged. So the ability of refined product output to normalize. I think it's going to take a lot longer.”
“And already even though so I mentioned that China oil imports are continuing to move lower, but flights were starting to go up, so mobility was starting to go up. So your consumption of refined products is going up before your production and your export of refined prices. So I would worry a little bit more about gasoline and diesel and jet fuel than I would about crude right now.”