Bloomberg Surveillance · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The spread between French and German government debt has widened to 100 basis points, a development attributed to a long-standing lack of fiscal discipline in France. This widening is expected to persist until the presidential election.
“Can we cross the channel? Because the big headline that crossed the Bloomberg terminal the last week or so was the spread, France over Germany, blowing out to 100 basis points. Speaking of discipline, we've talked about a lack of discipline in the French government for a long, long time when it comes to the deficit. Are they finally starting to pay the price for the lack of discipline?”
“Well, again, if you look at the flows, 2024, when we had that short-term merry-go-round of prime ministers... I think that was the point where just looking at positioning, French debt OATs, they repriced, and there's never been a recovery since. So I think that spread now, for the time being, at least until the presidential election, is going to stay in place.”