MacroVoices · Thursday, October 1, 2026
David Rosenberg predicts that the upcoming midterm elections, leading to fiscal policy gridlock, will historically result in an economic slowdown, lower inflation, and decreasing bond yields over the subsequent two years. He emphasizes that this pattern has an 80% historical success rate.
“Historically, when a one-party power swings to a two-party system with gridlock, 80% of the time, the economy slows down. 80% of the time, inflation goes down. and 80% of the time, bond yields go down.”
“This will be in 2028. I'll take those 80% odds. And that's because we get the fiscal gridlock.”
“The good thing about split government is that nothing gets done and that's what we need.”