Bloomberg Surveillance · Thursday, October 1, 2026
Campbell Harvey argues that the current 10-year Treasury yield, while statistically the highest in 25 years, is actually historically average. He attributes the perception of high rates to the unusually low rates seen during extraordinary events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, stating that 1-3% mortgage rates were the abnormal period.
“So number one, the rate, the yield on the 10-year is statistically the highest we've seen in 25 years. But you need to keep the context in mind that during the past 25 years, we've had these extraordinary events like the global financial crisis and COVID that drove the rate down to unusually low levels. And where we are right now is about average if you look at a longer history.”
“And you're correct that many people have not seen rates this high, but you need to have a historical perspective that the rate that we're seeing today is not abnormal. What was abnormal was when the rate was 1%, people getting mortgages at 2% or 3%. That's abnormal. So where we are today is historically where we've been many times.”