The David Lin Report · Thursday, October 1, 2026
China is identified as the most significant potential source of relief for the tight global diesel market, possessing underutilized refining capacity. While China has the physical ability to increase diesel exports, its policy choices remain uncertain due to domestic price considerations. An increase in Chinese diesel supply could significantly lower global prices.
“The one piece we haven't talked about yet that I do think is a strong candidate for a relief in the middle distillate market into winter is China.”
“Right now, today, the only pool of underutilized refining capacity in the world is in China. And I think that that's the most natural way for this to sort itself out.”
“For diesel specifically, I'm still watching China.”