The David Lin Report · Thursday, October 1, 2026
The US is considering a ban on diesel exports to address soaring domestic prices, especially with mid-term elections approaching. While a ban could temporarily lower US prices by increasing domestic inventories, it would significantly inflate global prices and potentially harm US refining operations by reducing profitability. Analysts suggest a throttling of export licenses is more likely than a full ban.
“The downside is that right now, US oil refineries are running very, very hot, very, very high, because the profitability is huge. Anyone that can run the refinery right now can, anyone that can do it is doing it because they're making money hand over fist. And we need that incentive to remain.”
“If... U.S. diesel prices start falling. You destroy that incentive and you will begin cutting runs.”
“It's a bad idea for industry. It's a bad idea for the full cycle of the US economy. And it's at best can only last for a month or two until it really starts breaking things.”