The David Lin Report · Thursday, October 1, 2026
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to around 14-16.5 million barrels a day, up from earlier lows. However, the cost of this transit is immense, with shipping and insurance costs potentially exceeding $30 per barrel, a stark increase from pre-war norms of $2. This elevated cost is attributed to ongoing risks and the need for defensive postures in the region.
“But by my numbers, you're seeing upwards of 14 million barrels a day, kind of now rising.”
“All in all, it's better. It shows that Iran is gradually starting to lose its control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Data from ShipTracker. Kepler also pointed to a substantial recovery, at least 16.5 million barrels a day of crude left the Gulf region so far this month, in line with pre-war levels.”