The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 29, 2026
A historical analysis revealed that the recent rate-cutting cycle, spanning two years, produced higher long-term rates, a phenomenon not seen in 50 years. The speaker posits this indicates the market's message to the Fed: be less easy, take inflation, deficits, and strong growth more seriously.
“During that whole 175 basis point, one and a quarter percent, the decline in rates the tenure yield went from 3.7% to 5%. Up 130 basis points. That is the first time in 50 years that a rate cutting cycle, long-term cutting cycle of two years, produced higher long-term rates.”
“I've argued the message in the market was you're too easy. We worry more about re-weighing the market. We're worrying more about inflation. We're worrying more about the deficit. We're worrying more about strong growth in the economy. You should take those things more seriously.”