The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 29, 2026
The Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision regarding an October rate hike, with prediction markets showing a 70% chance of a hike, while most Wall Street forecasts expect no hike due to its proximity to the midterm elections. This creates a potential conflict between political considerations and market expectations for rate cuts.
“Most of Wall Street is saying that there will not be a rate hike on October 28th, even though you point out the probability is 70%. And their argument is because it's a week before the midterm. And so they're almost implying that the Fed is going to be political and not raising rates because of the election calendar.”
“That's going to put the Fed in a difficult spot because I've been arguing that the market has been demanding rate cuts.”
“You know, but I don't know if we're going to get a deal in the strait that will lower oil. Or something else. But if none of that happens, then he's in a bad place. Who you're going to upset more? The president or the bond market? Because you can't please them both with the situation that we have right now.”