The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Jim Bianco argues that the most critical indicator for an impending recession is not the day the yield curve inverts, but the day it un-inverts (becomes positive again). This event, historically occurring about two years after inversion, signifies the Fed cutting rates aggressively in response to economic slowdown.
“I think the best way to look at the yield curve is not the day it inverts. It's the day that it un-inverts. It comes back from negative back to positive.”
“What causes short-term yields to plummet? The Fed is cutting rates. They've panicked. They've raised rates, the economy is slowing. They're panicking that we're going into recession.”
“But as of today, that's still two years away.”