The David Lin Report · Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike by the October FOMC meeting, an increase from 50% just a few weeks prior. This shift is attributed to rising oil prices and concerns about inflation.
“Now, at 5.23%, the 30 years at 5.5%, the highest since 2004. How aggressively is the Federal Reserve going to respond to current events? That's the question we'll be exploring. Right now, on prediction markets, uh, there is a high chance we're going to get another Fed rate hike by the end of October.”
“By October's FOMC meeting, traders are saying there is going to be a 70% chance that there's going to be a 25 basis point hike by October.”
“Oh, I think it's probably a little bit about oil and about inflation going up right now.”