Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Stephanie Roth notes that revisions to core PCE data, particularly in computer software and portfolio management, show inflation trending towards 2.5%. While the Fed may want to hike rates again, Roth believes they will be data-dependent, swayed by payrolls, CPI, and oil prices.
“And now we're seeing an environment where now we're fighting 3% inflation on core PCE. And realistically, when you move through the next couple of months, the tariffs roll through the data, we're going to see that we're really fighting 2.5% inflation.”
“But I think they're going to hike at least one more time, maybe twice.”
“I think what we'll see is they're going to be swayed to some extent on the data. So it's going to depend on payrolls. It's going to depend on CPI. And then they'll ultimately make their decision.”