Bloomberg Surveillance · Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Analysts are expressing concern over the increasing burden of non-mortgage personal interest payments on consumers, which has reached approximately 2.5% of disposable personal income. If this figure climbs to 2.8%, it could signal an impending recession, as historical data shows this level has preceded previous economic downturns. The reliance on credit cards for spending is exacerbating this trend.
“And that's where we're really concerned. One of the measures I like in this report is the measure of non-mortgage personal interest payments. And when you look at that as a share of disposable personal income, which is the same denominator as the saving rate, it's about 2.5%.”
“And the number that concerns me is 2.8%. If you take out the COVID recession, the past three recessions prior to that, when you've hit 2.8% of that non-mortgage personal interest payment, we've gone into recession.”
“And so if you continue to see consumers, to your point, use credit cards to spend. This is going to continue to squeeze them.”